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It has been a very strange year here in California for grapes.  This is a region that is known for its consistent growing seasons and very predictable wine quality, but 2008 promises to be a very interesting and very different year.

We began with lower than average rainfall--approximately 2/3 of what we normally expect.  And since it only rains between October and May, we don't expect anymore rain this year.  This is not a huge problem in itself, but it has left our reservoirs with less water than we would like…and this may have some impacts later on in the season.

In early May we had a very serious frost--one of the worst in the last thirty years.  While we expect a few days of frost, this one was particularly cold, and some of the technology we use to fight frost was simply not adequate for the job.  And since some of the vineyards use water for frost protection, this frost used up some of that precious water from the reservoirs.  Some growers reported losing as much as 40% of their young shoots, but the average was closer to 5%.  Over the next few weeks we will see exactly what effect this will have on the overall crop, but I expect that production will be lower because of this frost damage.

But Mother Nature has a sense of humor, and within a week of the frost we were suddenly in the middle of our first heat wave, with temperatures above 40 degress C for two days.  During such high heat, the vines tend to shut down, and this complicated the flowering and bloom that was in process.  The heat wave was then followed by two days of strong winds, often over 100 kph.  For those vines that were in flower, this certainly affected the pollination, and I expect that some vineyards will lose production because of this as well.

And to finish off the wild month of May, the last rainstorm of the season struck on the 23-25 of May, again hitting some of the vines that were in bloom.   But this rainstorm was not enough to fill the reservoirs, and they are very low.  As the heat of the summer approaches, many growers are concerned that they may not have enough water to irrigate furing those very high heat days of July and August which are sure to come.  While California growers do not irrigate to increase production, they do use water to alleviate stress in the vines when the temperature gets above 40 degrees C.  This may not be possible in 2008.

How will all this affect the quantity and quality of California wines this year?  While the results will certainly differ from appellation to appellation, and even vineyard to vineyard, there are a few general conclusions we can make:

1.  Between the frost, the heat, the wind and the rain, most growers are predicting a smaller crop in 2008, between 5 and 15% lower than 2007.  And 2007 was not a large harvest.  2007 was 15-20% smaller than 2006 and 2005.  If 2005 and 2006 oversupplied the US market with grapes, the immediate solution seems to be these next two vintages.

2.  In most years, California growers do some green harvesting to reduce drop loads, increase quality, and improve grape maturity.  Many growers are saying that green harvesting will be unnecessary this year, because the weather has already done it.  IF this is the case, then the production might still be quite good, but I expect that we will see lower crop loads and more uneven ripening in 2008.    

3.  This is particularly important because the demand for wine has never been higher in the USA.  After the very large 2005 and 2006 harvests, 2007 was smaller, and  2007 was very much in balance with the demands of the market.   2008 and could create some serious problems for US wineries in terms of grape supply.  With the market growing very consistently, I expect there will be a grape shortage in California over the next two years.  Varieties that will be most affected are Pinot Noir, Chardonnay, and Cabernet Sauvignon.  There is still too much Merlot and Syrah, and this lower harvest will simply bring those varieties into balance.

4.  As has been the trend in the USA, the wines with the most growth in the market are those selling for more than $8 per 750ml bottle, and that is where I expect to see the most supply problems with the 2008 harvest.  That category continues to grow at 15% a year or more, and the 2008 harvest looks as if it will not meet those expectations.  This should open the door to some imported wineries that are well positioned in the marketplace and can step in with solid brands and good marketing.

Comments (1)

	jose (14/08/08)	1	Many thanks for the report Paul. I've got a question. Do you have any info about any kind of relationship (if it does exist) between the last years fires, rains and harvests? Regards, Jose