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Time is finally proving Pancho Campo right. For the last three years he has been expressing his concern about the possible impacts that climate change will have over humanity and the wine industry. In 2006 he insisted in organising the first world congress about global warming in the wine industry. Although there was a great response on the part of the foreign media, as well as a large number of foreigners, the Spanish wine sector and the media were scarce.

Pancho’s vision has resulted in his being used as a point of refernce on a global level whenever the issue of climate change in the wine industry is mentioned. His articles have been published in prestigious magazines such as Australia & New Zealand Wine Industry Journal and his opinion is valued and included in articles done by the BBC or the Times.

For the second global meeting in climate change and wine pancho has received the support of the OIV and the Ministry of Environment. He has also managed the participation of the main scientists and winemakers in the world. Nevertheless, his main accomplishment has been to convince vicepresident Al Gore to host the opening conference that will take place on the 15th and 16th of February.

Pancho Campo and the Wine Academy have always shown a great interest in thei phenomenon. In fact, Pancho’s thesis, which he will present to the Institute of Masters of Wine in order to become the first Spanish Master of Wine, centres around the impacts of climate change. It is based in an ample study which he is undertaking in Penedés.

Question. - Please define in just a few words what the meaning of “Climate Change” and “Global Warming” is.
Answer. - Climate is the long-term average of a region's weather events lumped together. For example, it's possible that a winter day in Champagne could be sunny and mild, but the average weather – the climate – tells us that Champagne’s winters will mainly be cold and include snow and rain. Climate change represents a change in these long-term weather patterns. These can become warmer or colder. Annual amounts of rainfall or snowfall can increase or decrease.

Global warming refers to an average increase in the Earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer Earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife and humans. When scientists talk about the issue of climate change, their concern is about global warming caused by human activities.

Q. - Although very few doubt the existence of the change, there are serious objections regarding the responsibility of man in the matter ¿Which is your opinion?
A. - There is no doubt about the origin of global warming: it is the excessive accumulation of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride and hidrofluorocarbons. These are the six greenhouse gases listed in the Kioto protocol, which are mostly produced by human activities. In 1987 many governments signed the Montreal protocol in order to phase out chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) by 1996 in industrialised countries, replacing them for hidrofluorocarbons. Although less harmful to atmospheric ozone than CFC, HFC is still a greenhouse gas. These gases are man-made and used for refrigerators and aerosols. Although it is been agreed that HFC will have to be phased out by 2030 because these are non reactive gases, their life in the atmosphere is of approximately 200 years, time during which they will continue to contribute to global warming.

Q. - It seems that there is little unanimity in regards to the rhythm in which the change is happening. What kind of timings are we talking about?
A. - Well, this seems to be a bit clearer. At the moment the increment in temperature is of 1/3 of a degree Celsius every ten years; this means 3 degrees within the next 100 years. This is much faster than what has happened in the Earth in the last 10.000 years. The problem is that the global average temperature difference between the coldest part of an ice age and the warmest periods in between ice ages is of only 5 or 6 degrees. The speed at which this phenomenon is occurring will make it difficult for many human communities and ecosystems to adapt, especially those in developing countries.

Q. - Based on the above, which would be the first evident signs of its impact on agriculture and on viticulture?
A. - Recently, one of the guest speakers who will participate in the II World Meeting on Climate Change and Wine, Dr. Gregory Jones from Southern Oregon University and his colleagues, reported results of their analysis of 50 years of climate data from 27 different wine regions and compared them with Sotheby’s 100-point vintage ratings, looking for any trends in wine quality and growing season temperatures. In addition, they ran a sophisticated climate model to look at the projected temperature changes over the next 50 years. The results are striking. Overall, growing season temperatures have increased for most of the world’s high quality wine regions over the last 50 years, by an average of 2 ºC. In tandem with this rise in temperatures, the quality of vintages has also improved over this period. The study showed a significant relationship between the vintage ratings and monthly average growing season temperatures in most regions. The results suggest that the 27 wine regions analysed can expect an average growing season temperature increase of 2.04 ºC by 2049. Of these regions, the largest predicted change was for southern Portugal (2.85 ºC) the lowest was for South Africa (0.88 ºC).

In hot regions, grapes show excessive ripening conditions, but lack flavours that can take time to develop. Other regions, somewhat in between cool to hot growing climates, will likely have to consider other varieties that will produce better wines in a new climate regime. The analysis shows that this climate change could become very critical in already warm areas like Chianti, Barolo, Rioja, Southern France, the Hunter Valley, parts of Chile and the Central Valley of California. Other effects of increased temperatures could include lower acidity, harvest periods being brought forward into the warmest parts of the year, reduced water availability, and increased pest and disease burden. So while it seems that the climate change over the last 50 years has mostly had a positive effect on wine quality across the 27 regions included in this study, the future picture could be quite different.

High alcohol in today’s wines is also an added disadvantage. Is this because global warming is producing riper grapes with higher sugar levels? Partly, but it's also because of advances in viticulture and a tendency to harvest on the basis of phenolic ripeness rather than just sugar levels. While alcohol can add body and a perception of sweetness to wines, levels are often problematically high in warmer regions, and some winemakers are resorting to sophisticated techniques such as reverse osmosis to remove alcohol.

Q. - Along similar lines, which would be the immediate impacts from a financial, economical and marketing point of view, specially in the wine industry?.
A. - The economical and financial impacts of climate change are and will be considerable. In fact, we are already suffering the consequences of hurricanes, tornados and storms, which literally devastate wide areas of the planet with the corresponding exorbitant expenses that health and food aid involves, as well as reconstruction of cities, ports, cultivars, factories, etc. Large defences will have to be designed to protect maritime regions from the raise of sea level, new climate detection equipment and systems will have to be introduced, and numerous ports and coastal areas redesigned. In agriculture new irrigation systems will be needed as well as cultivars that can be adapted to the new climate conditions, promoting reforestation, changes in growing and harvest patterns. Insurance companies will raise the cost of their policies, and in certain cases will refuse to insure certain areas of high meteorological risk. In any case, preventive measures to slow down this phenomenon will always be more cost effective than having to face its long term consequences.

Q. - ¿How is Climate Change affecting Spain, if we can speak about localized effects?
A. - Spain and Portugal are the two countries of the European Union which are being affected the most by global warming. The effects of climate change are already being observed in Europe in the form of summer storms, drought, floods and other extreme meteorological conditions, which are becoming more frequent and financially harmful. However, the impact of this climate phenomenon is much more evident and noticeable in the Iberian Peninsula and western Russia, according to the results of a report by the European Agency for the Environment (AEMA). This report indicates that temperature has incremented by 0,95 degrees in Europe in the last 100 years, over the average world temperature. It also emphasises that this warming effect has been much more noticeable in the Iberian Peninsula and southern Russia, regions that will continue to suffer these effects in the upcoming years, together with countries in the south of Europe such as Greece and Italy. Having visited this year numerous wine producing regions of Spain, I have had the chance to verify that it is an almost unanimous opinion that the climate is changing, harvests are being brought forward, drought is a tangible problem, fruit has a higher sugar content therefore producing more alcoholic wines, and pH is difficult to control. More worrying is the facts that, although the wine industry is aware of the problem, most producers, regulating bodies and organizations are in denial, and are reluctant to admit that there is a problem which is starting to negatively affect the industry. It is time to react, to carefully research and analyze the matter and begin taking the appropriate measures.

Q. - In Spain, in general, water management it is not the most adequate; do you believe that with a proper use of the hidric resources and with adequate water management climate change could be stopped?
A. - First and foremost, we must accept the fact that climate change cannot be stopped, only slowed down; it has happened before and it is meant to happen again. Secondly, it is widely accepted that climate change is generated by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. Very little can be done to reduce the speed at which it is happening based on water management only. This is an adaptation and mitigation response but not a solution. The key is to start looking for alternative fuels for transportation, new heating systems and implementing industrial control in order to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.

Q. - ¿Do you agree that recent agreements such as the Montreal Protocol can contribute to change the tendency in climate change? Even with Australia and the USA not signing the Kyoto Protocol?
A. - Well, the Montreal Protocol has helped to phase out the chlorofluorocarbon compounds (CFC), utilized for refrigerators and sprays, replacing them for less harmful versions such as hidrofluorocarbons (HFC). This has helped to stop the destruction of the ozone layer in the atmosphere and prevent new ozone holes from being formed like the one in Chile at the level of the Patagonia and the Antarctic. The problem lies in the fact that these are inert gases that will remain in the atmosphere for another 100 to 200 years, harming the ozone and contributing to increase the greenhouse effect. Kyoto, without the USA and Australia, looses a great deal of its affectivity. In the same way that we have found less harmful substitutes to CFC, until we do not stop burning fossil fuels reducing the emission of CO2 and greenhouse gases, we will not be able to stop climate change. Even if these emissions are drastically stopped, we are already late and it would take a long time until the benefits could be perceived because greenhouse gases take a long time to be destroyed.

Q. - Please try to describe the viticultural scene of the planet, in years to come, with a temperature a couple of degrees higher than today.
A. - It is understood that the regions for wine growing are those located between the parallels 30 and 50 in both hemispheres. This has started to change, and in regions traditionally cold and humid like England, quality wines are starting to be produced. On the contrary, those warm and hot wine producing areas will start to find difficulties to continue growing the same varieties. Viticulturists will be forced to plant different varieties, clones or rootstock with increased resistance to drought and to the new climate conditions. We will witness the introduction of new training systems and irrigation methods. Harvests being brought forward to the warmer parts of the year will imply the use of new picking systems and strategies, as well as new corrective treatments at the winery level and more use of reverse osmosis, cooling systems, cryo extraction, etc.

Q.- Lets be positive about it: What must be done? When do we have to start? Who is responsible? Which are the most effective strategies to minimize the impact and promote the necessary adaptation?
A. - Solutions to the problem include different aspects: scientists and related organisms will have to conduct further research to provide information about the expected climate change on the regional and local level, especially to governments and politicians, who will have to promote a joint international action. Technology will have to be developed and adapted to confront the consequences and impacts of climate change, looking for more efficient energy systems, reducing considerably the emissions of greenhouse gases, designing new forms of fuels, promoting recycling, reforestation, etc.
The international industry must invest in adaptation to new technologies that can help mitigate the effects of climate change. From the point of view of economy, new types of incentives, subsidies and tax deductions are to be implemented, with economists, scientists and politicians working under a well coordinated effort.

The public has to be informed and educated, through awareness campaigns, on the reality of the problem as well as promoting the corresponding solutions. On the other hand, individuals must assume a certain responsibility by learning the better and more effective use of energy on their day to day activities, as well as implementing new sources of energy at home such as solar panels and electricity. But above everything else, the industry and the individuals must learn to use transportation that does not consume fossil fuels.

Q. - Do you think that climate change could be a catastrophe, or the human race will have enough time to adapt? If we are up for a catastrophe, who cares then about what will happen to wine? In the other hand, if change will happen slowly, why can’t we just adapt ourselves at the same pace?
A. - I don’t believe that on a short term climate change will be catastrophic because it is in our hands to slow it down in order to give us time for adaptation. We cannot stop something that has already started and that has happened before in our history. However, if the problem is not tackled seriously and strong measures adopted, our sons and grandsons could have to face the catastrophic effects of our irresponsible attitude of consuming the natural resources of the planet with no remorse.

Q.- The first global meeting about climate change was clearly a media success. What other interesting issues are you offering in the second meeting apart from the participation of Al Gore?
A.- In the first meeting celebrated in Barcelona we did not have a large response on the part of the Spanish wine sector, nor the specialised media of our country, it was almost embarrassing. Nevertheless we had a good turnout on the part of other nations and media such as Decanter, Wine Enthusiasts, BBC, Blooomberg and many others. This allowed us to make us be recognised extensively at an international level. Eight months later the attitude has changed considerably on the part of the Spanish sector, we receive daily phone calls by the media who show a great interest in the subject. For this reason I decided to pursue the second edition of this event. We have received sponsorship and backing by the OIV as well as from the Ministry of Environment. We have managed to confirm the participation of the most respected scientists in the field. We will also have the participation of numerous winemakers from Bourdeaux, Chile, Australia, California and Spain who will give their practical opinion. I also believe that it is very important that US president Al Gore has agreed to conduct the opening conference ceremony of the event. The dates are confirmed for February 15th and 16th of 2008.